READ ME ... yeah, right. Right?

I'm sick of everyone else having on-line diaries. I want one too.

What is this all about? Maybe you should read the READ ME READ ME.

january 27, 1999:
Shooting On Don't

"Everyone has the right to make an ass out of themselves. You can't let the world judge you too much."

from Harold & Maude

Playing the Don't Pass line is not as easy as it looks. To do so successfully, you need to tolerate a lot of losses to balance out the wins. Even more challenging, you must not show excitement over your winnings or disappointment when you lose, lest you break the most fundamental craps rule: Don't Be An Asshole. The dice come and go, but they eventually pass to the next shooter, which is when you win. And as any craps player knows, the dice always eventually pass.

People don't like it when you play Don't Pass. They tell you that you are bad for karma, even if you commend their winnings; they refuse to believe that your strategy works, even as your chips pile up on the table; and they refuse to bet along with you, even when you are shooting against yourself. They tell you all sorts of inaccurate explanations for the odds, which they learn from their craps guides that are almost always incorrect about it. Seven is always the most likely toss, you see, which makes winning on the Don't Pass line always more likely than betting with the point that has been set. And you can explain this to them, and urge them to bet your way, but they refuse to. They want to believe they are right, even as they lose hundreds and thousands of dollars (and you win).

Don't Pass line betters are pragmatists; they are statistics majors; and most of all they are iconoclasts. I'm proud to be one of them. It takes a lot of patience to sit quietly as you lose money, but if you stay in for the long haul, you will come out ahead. It's good practice, I think, in tolerance of short-term losses, and it reminds me a lot of the stock market in that way.

"I'm like Lucent," I kept telling people, as I laid down $50 bucks on the Don't Pass line and then shot a "win" on 7. "I'll come out ahead." And sure enough, 7-ups be damned, 7-outs beat them in number. That's how the dice fall: two steps forward, one step back. And then they pass to the next shooter.

It's a lot like life. And like last weekend in Vegas, I'm confident that, despite some short term losses recently, the smart money remains (patiently) with Shooting On Don't.


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